For the first time in recent memory, the University of Florida heads into a football season a decided underdog in eight of its twelve games.
For the first time in recent memory, the University of Florida heads into a football season a decided underdog in eight of its twelve games. DraftKings places the over/under on win total for the Gators at a paltry 4.5. Pundits from Bristol, Conn. to Atlanta look ready to play a dirge for a season that hasn’t started yet.
As a result, a palpable sense of worry flows through the fanbase. Cursed with an unbelievably tough schedule, the Gators, in the eyes of many, appear headed for a disastrous 2024 season. Yet, something feels different. No one told the football team that their season ended before it started. Ignore those folks and enjoy the games ahead.
The Schedule
Make no mistake, Florida will play a brutal schedule against some of the SEC’s top teams. During the month of November, Florida plays Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State. Not to mention, Tennessee and Texas A&M show up early in the season.
On paper, all of these teams possess top-tier offenses, defenses, and coaching. Their rosters bubble over with blue-chip prospects and All-Americans. Correspondingly, NFL scouts representing all thirty-two franchises will attend these matchups. In a way, the schedule makers will end up helping the Gators more than anything else.
The Hotseat
As previously discussed, Billy Napier must continue to perform well in order to maintain his position. He is aware of this and comprehends the current circumstance completely. To be honest, the Gators should benefit from that reality. Napier understands the agreement. In film visuals, The Swamp will be the site of his final stand.
No play seems odd given that commentators have already selected his replacement through their material and that coaches are searching Zillow for properties in Alachua County. Napier can coach with a clear head since he has a $32 million buyout but a job to lose. The school’s worst-case scenario would be to terminate him and cover an eight-figure buyout. Napier and his crew are unfazed by any opponent.
Upside
Florida has a seasoned quarterback going into the season who fits well in this system. Graham Mertz works with the plan. Out of Florida’s opponents, just three will have a starting quarterback back. Consequently, a lot of people will use this season to learn a system.
Mertz, meantime, will enter games knowing that his opponent won’t. Plus, Florida plays six of its games in The Swamp. With 89,000 spectators, most of whom are dressed in blue and orange, home-field advantage becomes even more crucial.
Opponent Expectations Burden
People still don’t talk enough about the challenges Florida’s opponents will confront. Postseason hopes are high for Georgia, Ole Miss, Florida State, TAMU, and Tennessee. Given the nature of probability, some of those clubs will drop several games. In certain cases, their destiny shifts from a certain home game to maybe traveling or being left out of the running entirely.
One of these opponents will show signs of posterior puckering and poor decision-making, which will allow Florida to pull off an upset. Only three Gator seasons have concluded with five or fewer wins since 1988. There will undoubtedly be more than one team that fails. Conference turmoil is also dictated by the karmic nature of college football.
