Welcome to my weekly edition of “Overreactions from Steelers Nation” a weekly column where I poke fun at fans, reporters, and so-called experts while trying to figure out if some of these hot takes are real – or just for attention.
My “overreaction” essays usually start by making fun of yinzers. But this week, in support of T.J. Watt’s second-place finish in the NFL Defensive Player of the Year vote at last week’s NFL Honors, I find myself requesting a pitchfork and a torch.
The fact that Watt lost the award to Cleveland Browns DE Myles Garrett—who wasn’t even close to being the greatest defensive player in the league—is more concerning than the fact that Watt didn’t win it. Although Garrett is an excellent player, his season was far from outstanding. Other players—Maxx Crosby of the Raiders among them—made strong arguments against Watt.
Among them was not Garrett.
Before I get into the comparisons of both players, let’s examine how Watt was screwed. These awards are voted on by people in sports media. Those same people who are supposed to have no bias, generally have bias for a multitude of reasons. Perhaps they grew up with a favorite team or have ties to a specific organization that they cover. Or someone shorted them on an interview.
The media holds grudges, but they also have to prove to the world they’re never wrong with their hot takes.
In the case of the analytics nerds and prediction model folks, they have to prop up their takes so they aren’t proven wrong or made it to look foolish.
Yet, voting for Garrett over Watt does exactly that.
We all know how much the media has been swooning over the prospect of the Cleveland Browns finally turning their franchise from a loser into a winner. The talking heads on TV have done nothing but praise everyone from Garrett to QB Deshaun Watson to naming the Browns preseason Super Bowl contenders for each of the last several years.
I want to be clear for the sake of openness that even while I still adore the Browns, my prejudice doesn’t affect these opinions as much as you may assume.
At the NFL Honors, Garrett wasn’t the only honor the Browns dubiously received. Coach of the Year went to Kevin Stefanski, the head coach of the Browns. He defeated head coach Dan Campbell of the Detroit Lions and coach Demeco Ryans of the Houston Texans. Given that the Browns lost their division, how are you able to grant Stefansiki that award?
Still, both the Lions and the Texans did. For Detroit, it was the first time since 1993 that they had won their division. They also defeated Cleveland in 12 games played.
They also awarded the Assistant Coach of the Year award to Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. That one is harder to argue, as the Browns were a top unit, but they weren’t an all-time best either with other coordinators proving to be better candidates.
Let’s compare the Baltimore Ravens, who were first in points allowed and sixth in yards. The Browns were 13th in points but first in yards. Yet, Baltimore forced more turnovers and was first and second in rushing and passing scoring. (Whereas the Browns ranked in the middle of the league at 17th in both categories; far from elite.)
Last but not least, Joe Flacco won the Comeback Player of the Year award over Buffalo’s Damar Hamlin and Tampa Baker Mayfield in Bay. Mayfield was left for dead as a top NFL quarterback after joining his fourth professional team yet threw for over 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns to 10 interceptions with the Bucs. As everyone knows (and with a horrible segue, I might add), Hamlin overcame obstacles to play the entire season despite being declared dead on the field.
Flacco was a charming tale, but in his five starts, he only had one game with a QB rating of above 100. (Yes, Flacco took home the prize despite appearing in just five games!)
Based on a 17-game season projection, Flacco was expected to intercept 27 passes.In the past 20 years, only two players have thrown more: Brett Favre, who was 29 in 2005, and Jameis Winston, who was 30 in
Yet the rah-rah slobbering over the Browns greatness couldn’t end there. For weeks we heard about how Myles Garrett finished the regular season with just one sack, yet he still had a higher “pass rush win rate” than T.J. Watt. The squad was already behind by three touchdowns when that sack was made against Trevor Siemian of the New York Jets.
Given that Garrett wasn’t sacking quarterbacks left and right, how is it possible for him to have such a high “win rate”? The last time I looked, sacking the quarterback was the way a pass rusher “wins”—a feat T.J. Watt led the league in. In addition, Watt made NFL history by being the first player to lead the team in sacks three times.
When other statistics are taken into consideration, Watt was obviously wrongfully denied this distinction.
But that’s not all. For the media members who believe Garrett is better than Watt (and there’s a number of them out there) they haven’t run the numbers. While Garrett disappears late in the season, the “advanced metrics” group comes up with stats that spin him into a player he’s not. Oftentimes excuses, such as he’s double-teamed more often, enter the debate.
Do we believe for one moment that opposing offenses do not account for where Watt is on every single play? And while we’re at it, we know they both play different positions but does Watt – who drops into coverage while Garrett does not – receive more chances to go directly after the quarterback?
Those are rhetorical questions, folks. Thanks for joining my TED Talk and stay tuned because I’m going to bust open the comparisons between Garrett and Watt even further to show how much of a farce this award truly was this season.
