The first 12-team College Football Playoff projects to be an SEC party – so long as Notre Dame and the Big Ten don’t interfere.
Nine SEC teams profile as a playoff hopefuls. Not all of them can qualify.
Four playoff teams from the SEC seems reasonable. What about five? That’s a stretch, but doable if the SEC catches a few breaks.
The hosts of the USA TODAY Network podcast “SEC Football Unfiltered,” Blake Toppmeyer and John Adams, discuss the SEC’s chances of making the playoffs and assess the obstacles that could prevent the league from fielding as many as five teams.
The only other conference that has the potential to challenge the SEC for the most qualified teams is the Big Ten. Let’s start there.
What about Notre Dame, then? The SEC’s hopes of winning five are harmed by the Irish obtaining an at-large bid, but Texas A&M might completely destroy Notre Dame in Week 1.
The Big 12 and ACC are sleeper agents that could spoil the SEC’s five-qualifier quest.
TOPPMEYER:If SEC expands again, consider 4 ACC teams. But what about Notre Dame football?
ADAMS:Why nonconference football games will loom larger than ever
SCHEDULE ANALYSIS:Why ESPN can influence debate over SEC football’s conference schedule
Here’s how we see it:
Could the Big Ten qualify five teams?
Adams: Not happening. More like three. Four is pushing it. Not five. The SEC can get five. The Big Ten won’t. Who would even be the five? Ohio State and Oregon look good for the playoff. Maybe Penn State, too. Michigan and Southern Cal are contenders, but I’m not convinced either will qualify, considering their schedules.
Toppmeyer: No. I don’t know if the SEC will qualify five, but it has a better chance to qualify five than the B1G. For starters, the SEC will have more playoff contenders. I count nine playoff hopefuls from the SEC: Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss, Alabama, LSU, Missouri, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Texas A&M. Having nine contenders gives you a shot at qualifying five. Who projects as a contender from the B1G? Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, Michigan and USC. And Michigan and USC will face brutal schedules. The Big Ten will qualify three or four. Not five.
Will Notre Dame claim a playoff spot?
Adams: I think Notre Dame will lose at Texas A&M in Week 1. And if that happens, the Irish aren’t making any playoff.
Toppmeyer: Ask me this question again in Week 2. Irish at Aggies seems like a coin-flip game. If Notre Dame wins, I like its chance to make the playoff. If the Irish lose, I think they’re on shaky ground, because they’d have no margin for error. If the Irish finished 10-2, their soft schedule would leave them vulnerable to missing the playoff. That makes Week 1 so important.
Better chance of earning two bids – ACC or Big 12?
Adams: Big 12. That conference offers an avenue for a sleeper to emerge from the shadows.
Toppmeyer: Big 12, in part because I’m not sure there’s even more than two contenders in the ACC: Clemson and Florida State. I think each will be a one-bid league, but I like the Big 12’s chances better for two.
So, how many does the SEC qualify for the playoff?
Adams: Five. Four teams will emerge as playoff locks, while a few others will engage in a mad tussle for the final spot.
Toppmeyer: Five. Just don’t ask me which five. My opinion on that changes almost by the day.
