OPINION: Australia’s late capitulation in Melbourne will give second-half specialists South Africa food for thought ahead of next month’s Rugby Championship double-header.
The British and Irish Lions edged the Wallabies 29-26 in Melbourne on Saturday to take an unassailable 2-0 lead in the series.
While a lot has been said and written about Jac Morgan’s clean-out on Carlo Tizzano in the final minute – and whether it was or wasn’t a penalty for the Wallabies – the result is in the bag, and the B&I Lions have won their first series in 12 long years.
Perhaps this is why the group has celebrated as if they’ve won the World Cup, even though there’s another Test to play.
The occasion certainly warrants a drink or three – and if the social media clips coming out of Melbourne are any indicator, the tourists haven’t held back.
It does beg the question of whether the B&I Lions will be at their physical best for the final Test, and whether they will record the first 3-0 sweep of a host nation in the professional era.
The contest in Sydney is unlikely to produce the same desperation and intensity that characterised the second Test, as the series is no longer on the line.
With that in mind, less should be read into the performances of both teams in what is essentially a dead rubber.
More should be read into the recent displays in Brisbane and Melbourne.
Joe Schmidt’s side came into this series woefully underdone and without several key players, and yet, the limitations of the squad have been laid bare in recent weeks.
It’s tempting to conclude that the most recent performance in Melbourne contrasted with the display in Brisbane.
In the first Test, the B&I Lions led 24-5 after 42 minutes. The Wallabies went on to win the closing stages 14-3, although it was not enough to prevent a 27-19 victory for the tourists.
In the second Test, the Wallabies raced to a 23-5 lead in less than half an hour – but the B&I Lions rallied to outscore the hosts 24-3 in the ensuing 50 minutes.
While there are some similarities between the scorelines, the Wallabies were rarely in control.
The B&I Lions took their foot off the pedal shortly after half-time in the first Test. While the Wallabies were the better team in the closing stages, the tourists were never in danger of losing the game, as the 12-point margin suggests.
The flow of the second Test was very different.
The Wallabies dominated the first 30 minutes, as the inclusion of Will Skelton and Rob Valetini had the desired impact at the gainline and breakdown.
The B&I Lions never panicked, and after both Skelton and Valetini were subbed, the complexion of the game changed, with the tourists controlling the set pieces and gainline, and piling on the points.
Schmidt is a shrewd operator and would have foreseen a shift after Skelton and Valetini’s departure.
The Wallabies coach opted for a six-two split between forwards and backs on the bench – and for the record, this is why I felt that the hosts would close out the game, especially after such a brilliant start.
Replacement Langi Gleeson and a couple of others showed some fight in the latter stages, but the scoreboard tells a story.
The Wallabies lost the physical and territorial battle, and only managed a solitary penalty goal in the second stanza.
It could be argued that had Keenan’s last-minute try been disallowed, the B&I Lions would have won the second half by a less convincing four-point margin.
The fact of the matter is that the Wallabies were holding on by their fingernails for the better part of 50 minutes, as the B&I Lions upped the ante.
Rassie Erasmus will ensure that the Boks head into the two Rugby Championship matches against Australia on August 16 and 23 with the right attitude.
While the group has set its sights on the subsequent double-header in New Zealand – and more specifically, the showdown with the All Blacks at Eden Park – the Boks can’t afford to slip up against the Wallabies if they are going to retain their Rugby Championship title.
Having watched the Wallabies fire then fade in Melbourne, Erasmus and company will sense an opportunity.
It’s no secret that the Boks prepare to peak in the second half of big Tests, and that Erasmus often saves his best players for the bench in these fixtures.
With Skelton and Valetini in the starting lineup, the Wallabies may go toe to toe with the Boks in the opening exchanges of the games in Johannesburg and Cape Town next month.
Whete games in Johannesburg and Cape Town next month.
her they can last 80 minutes with the world champions, who acan last 80 minutes with the world champions, who are, as the evidence suggests, at their strongest and most prolific in the final 40, is another story.
A young and much-changed Bok side claimed two wins in Australia last season. In terms of the second-half scorelines, the Boks won 12-7 in Brisbane and then 19-3 in Perth.
In 2023, when the contest was staged in Pretoria, the Boks won the second half 26-7 – and ultimately won the game 43-12.
On all three occasions, the Wallabies favoured a five-three split on the bench.
It was interesting to see Schmidt opting for six forwards on the bench this past weekend, and one wonders whether he will stick with this strategy in the upcoming matches against the Boks.
In the recent internationals staged in South Africa, the Barbarians, Italy and Georgia all favoured a six-two bench in their matches against the Boks.
The Azzurri enjoyed some success in Pretoria, winning the second half 21-14, and in the aftermath, coach Gonzalo Quesada quipped that his ‘Grenade Squad’ had got the better of South Africa’s Bomb Squad.
That served as a wake-up call for the Boks, who went on to outscore Italy 21-0 during the latter stages of the next Test in Port Elizabeth, before thumping Georgia 23-0 during the second half in Mbombela.
Schmidt may have a trick up his sleeve for the next game against the B&I Lions inSydney, and may spring a surprise or two when the Wallabies tour South Africa next month.
But given the players at his disposal and the deep-rooted problems that continue to hamper Australian rugby, the Wallabies will start that mini-series as underdogs.
