Analytics Reveal just How Difficult Florida Gators Football Schedule Really Is.
The Florida Gators football schedule has been acknowledged as the toughest in the country, and even that is underselling it.
It is not the first time this offseason that the Florida Gators have seen their program and the words “hardest schedule in 2024” grouped in the same sentence.
In fact, everyone agrees that the Gators have structured a terrifying schedule filled with top-25 opponent after top-25 opponent and just one “easy” out-of-conference game.
Now, a new ranking has appeared courtesy of KFordRatings.com
This ranking predicts the number of expected wins the No. 12 power-rated team in the country would have against a given team’s regular season schedule.
For the Gators’ schedule, the expected wins for a theoretical No. 12 team came out to be 6.9. This is the lowest win total and would be a 0.5 win lower than the next team, Vanderbilt.
Put into real terms, ESPN ranks the Penn State Nittany Lions No. 12 in their post-spring rankings. Penn State would go 7-6 against Florida’s schedule.
The Gators were unranked and not listed among the 34 teams who received consideration.
This just shows what is ahead for the Gators in 2024.
They play Florida State, Miami, Samford, and UCF away from home. There will only be one of those that is declared the winner right away.
They will then face a difficult SEC schedule that will put them to the test.It’s Texas A&M, Kentucky, LSU, and Ole Miss at home.
Florida goes on the road to play assumed No. 1 Georgia at Mississippi State, Tennessee, Texas, and a neutral location.
Seven of these teams have been selected by ESPN’s Mark Schlabach for the post-spring Top-25 teams.
These are Georgia at No. 1, Texas at No. 3, Ole Miss at No. 6, Florida State at No. 11, LSU at No. 14, Tennessee at No. 15, and Miami at No. 24.
It’s astonishing for a team that has taken its fair share of punches over the past two years to have assembled this schedule, but here we are.
Napier is somehow going to have to succeed under harsh conditions next season or else the fanbase that is already generating a lot of dangerous noise will make it hard for him to see another year with the program.
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an out call at second base after Cade Kurland’s two-RBI single to center.
— Caglianone was intentionally walked to load the bases
— Robertson struck out swinging
— Questionable pitch sequencing by Kentucky to Brody Donay, who had a two strike count but got a fastball from a pitcher with a legit slider. Donay struggles with spin and promptly singled to right off the heater to give Florida runners on first and second with one out in the third.
— Thomas flew out to left
— Wilson was hit by a pitch to lead off the third. Kentucky junior righty Robert Hogan has taken over on the mound with no outs and a runner on first in the third inning.
TOP OF THE THIRD; 7-1 Florida
— Waldschmidt grounded into a double play to end the inning. Coppola has faced the minimum over his last two innings
— Grant Smith struck out swinging
— James McCoy walked
BOTTOM OF THE SECOND; 7-1 Florida
— Heyman popped out to second
— Shelton struck out swinging
— Shelnut struck out swinging
TOP OF THE SECOND; 7-1 Florida
— Nolan McCarthy grounded out to third to end the inning
— Devin Burkes struck out swinging
— Pierce Coppola opened the second inning with a five-pitch strikeout against Kentucky third baseman Mitchell Daly. He threw a 92 mph fastball with 2,546 RPM and 20 inches of arm-side run.
BOTTOM OF THE FIRST; 7-1 Florida
— Kurland struck out swinging. Florida brought 11 to plate, scored seven and chased Kentucky’s starter from the game after one out. About as good a start as this team could have asked for with a potential doubleheader on tap today.
— Caglianone walked
— Michael Robertson grounded out to short
— SCORE: Brody Donay’s 13th home run of the season was an opposite-field grand slam with one out in the first. Florida is demolishing the Wildcats early. 7-1 Gators with one out B1
— Dale Thomas singled to right to load the bases
— Ashton Wilson walked. Kentucky starter Dominic Niman’s day is done after just recording one out. Righty Cameron O’Brien is replacing him with runners on first and second in the first inning. Florida leads 3-1.
— SCORE: Luke Heyman singled to left, plating a pair. 3-1 Florida with one out and a runner on first B1
— SCORE: Colby Shelton hit a 109 mph double to the base of the wall in right, scoring Jac Caglianone and advancing Cade Kurland to third. 1-1 with one out and runners on second and third B1
— Tyler Shelnut struck out looking
— Cade Kurland was hit by a pitch
— Jac Caglianone singled to right-center and advanced to second on a fielding error by right fielder James McCoy
TOP OF THE FIRST; 1-0 Kentucky
— Lopez was caught stealing to end the inning
— SCORE: Nick Lopez singled to right-center, driving in Ryan Waldschmidt from second. Waldschmidt stole second despite Pierce Coppola having him picked off after Jac Caglianone’s throw hit the runner in the back. 1-0 Kentucky with two outs and a runner on first T1
— Waldschmidt stole second despite Pierce Coppola having him picked off. Jac Caglianone’s throw hit Waldschmidt in the back.
— Ryan Nicholson flew out to left
— Emilien Pitre struck out swinging on a breaking ball in on his hands
— Ryan Waldschmidt drew a five-pitch walk
FLORIDA LINEUP
1B Jac Caglianone
2B Cade Kurland
LF Tyler Shelnut
SS Colby Shelton
C Luke Heyman
RF Ashton Wilson
3B Dale Thomas
DH Brody Donay
CF Michael Robertson
SP Pierce Coppola
KENTUCKY LINEUP
LF Ryan Wladschmidt
2B Emilien Pitre
1B Ryan Nicholson
DH Nick Lopez
3B Mitchell Daly
C Devin Burkes
CF Nolan McCarthy
RF James McCoy
SS Grant Smith
SP Dominic Niman
PREGAME
— Florida (35-29) is set to take on Kentucky (46-15) in a College World Series elimination game at 11 a.m. ET on Wednesday morning in Omaha, Nebraska. The game will be televised. The Gators are the home team for Wednesday’s meeting.
— Wednesday’s contest was originally scheduled to be played on Tuesday night at 7 p.m. ET but was postponed due to weather in the area. As a result, the winner of Wednesday morning’s game will have to play a doubleheader with the second game set to start at roughly 7 p.m. ET against Texas A&M.
— The Gators are starting redshirt sophomore lefty Pierce Coppola on Wednesday morning. It is unclear who will oppose him on the mound for the Wildcats.
