Picking a favourite in a six-round tournament after round one can be risky, but here is why the Springboks should not be considered overwhelming favourites for the Rugby Championship in 2024 after round 1.

Before considering that point, let’s open with a different question: in what ways are Rassie’s group of Springboks different to the All Blacks who also defended the World Cup successfully in 2015?

A Tale of Two Teams

The stark difference between New Zealand’s back-to-back world champions in 2011 and 2015, and the Springboks of 2019 to 2023, has been what transpired within those respective four-year periods. The All Blacks conquered all within their path.

They won all the Rugby Championships except for the abridged 2015 version in the World Cup year, boasting a winning head-to-head record against all the opponents they faced over this period, and never once losing at home.

The Boks, by contrast, failed to get their hands on the Southern Hemisphere trophy once, suffered a first loss at home to Wales, failed to beat Ireland or France, and lost to a struggling Australian team (who would eventually fail to qualify for the RWC quarter-finals) three times out of five matches played.

The Springboks, ever since their first bite at the cherry in 1995, have developed a tendency to play at much higher levels of performance at World Cups than in any other event.

Many reasons can be put forward to give context to this phenomenon, but two prominent ones stand out.

Firstly, South Africa is one of the countries that have an overwhelming, deeper ‘why’ behind their drive for success, and the coaches leverage this brilliantly.

The country’s hardships and struggles are well documented, and the Springboks have historically emerged as a beacon of hope for the broader population, to demonstrate what the country is capable of achieving.

Every World Cup when the players are sent off on a mission to conquer the rest of the rugby world, the feeling in South Africa can be likened to Roosevelt’s troops sent on their mighty endeavour before D-day in 1944, with the weight and expectation of a nation on their shoulders.

It could be argued that in matches with fine margins such as in the 2023 World Cup, the mission, or bigger cause these players are playing for, proves to be the deciding factor in the last 10 minutes of a match.

The other notable reason is that the Springbok coaching group seems more obsessed with winning World Cups than their international counterparts.

This view is based on the narrative and reasoning continually put forward by their coaching group compared to others.

They often make bold selection calls in between World Cups to give players exposure, at the expense of short-term results.

They often make bold selection calls in between World Cups to give players exposure, at the expense of short-term results.

Rolling the dice

So then, why should the Springboks not be considered favourites to win the 2024 Rugby Championship? The Springboks have Australia on the ropes after the 33-7 demolition in Brisbane.

The second Test in Perth was the ideal opportunity to finish off a staggering opponent and return to the Republic with 10 log points in the bag.

Instead, the coaching group decided to make no less than 10 changes and overhaul their team completely.

The most notable change when considering the sub-sections of the team, comes in the tight five, the area through which the Springboks asserted the most of their dominance in Brisbane.

The tight five to face the Wallabies in Perth will have a mere 30 caps, by comparison, the least experienced member of the tight five in Brisbane was Ox Nche, with 31 caps.

The selection is reminiscent of the Sprinbok’s second test against Wales in 2022 where Jacques Nienaber made no fewer than 14 changes after the first Test, and came up short in the end.

The coaching staff at the time kept emphasising that the team had lost a year in the World Cup cycle, and was forced to make radical calls to fast-track experience and depth-building.

Fast forward to 2024, and in a cycle where South Africa looks set to have four years to build, the coaching group seems to have stepped into the same trap.

The more conventional approach would have been to blood youngsters in specific positions where they are sandwiched by war veterans on either side, such as the case with Elrigh Louw and Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu in Brisbane, playing with experienced loose-trio and halfback partners.

The team Erasmus named for Saturday features players with less than 10 caps in all critical decision-making positions such as numbers: 2, 8, 9, 10 and 15.

The Springboks still have the big guns on the bench, but it could prove too little too late come the 60-minute mark on Saturday if they are behind the eight ball at the time.

The Boks are generally not a team that can play catch-up rugby well. They are coming up against a desperate Wallaby team, who will be buoyed by this selection and will have a realistic chance of getting one over the Boks on Saturday.

Conversely, across the Pacific, the All Blacks return to their coveted Eden Park, where they have not lost since 1994.

Smart money should be on them picking up five points against an Argentinian side that already exceeded all expectations for their trip in test one, and who will struggle to reach the same levels of emotion and motivation come Saturday.

Combining these two elements, there is a realistic chance that after round two, both the Springboks and the All Blacks will be around the 5/6 point mark on the table.

Well-rested vs Battle Hardened?

Should Australia manage to get a W against the Boks in Perth, the damage will be severe.

Firstly, the Boks would have lost all the momentum they currently have, and potentially face stark criticism from back home for taking an unnecessary gamble.

Secondly, a number of their stalwarts and likely match-day starters, such as Bongi Mbonambi, Frans Malherbe, RG Snyman, Siya Kolisi, Jasper Wiese (now suspended), Faf de Klerk (injured but expected back), Damian de Allende, Kurt-Lee Arendse and Le Roux Roets, would have gone two or more weeks without any matches played.

This, in turn, is reminiscent of the 2023 Rugby Championship selection, where the coaching staff decided to send 13 players a week in advance to New Zealand before the Mount Smart test, and not play them against Australia at Loftus the week before.

The Boks were caught cold on the night in Auckland and trailed 0-17 at the 20-minute mark, a deficit they would never really make up on the night, eventually going down 20-35.

Ironically, the players that most impressed on the night for the Boks, were the players who played the week prior against the Wallabies, the likes of Pieter-Steph du Toit and Duane Vermeulen coming off the bench.

The All Blacks have won three of the last four matches played at Ellis Park, which refutes the argument that they struggle at altitude, and could have the potential to catch the Boks cold again with a blistering start.

The fact that the Boks this time around have a week off between facing the Wallabies and the All Blacks provides enough of a resting opportunity that the Boks could have started with the veterans and yanked them at the 40min mark if the game were to be secured in Perth, to allow the young guns a hit out.

Should the All Blacks be able to get a result in either one of the two tests in the Republic, it could very well be that the writing is on the wall again for the Boks to finally win a full version of the rugby championship for the first time ever (remembering that their only ever win in the expanded competition including the pumas came in the abridged version in 2019).

By nature of the All Black’s style of play, they have the ability to clock up very high point differentials against the likes of Australia once they get on top in a match, and if the two teams go into the final two rounds all square, another New Zealand triumph would be the most likely outcome.

The Springbok coaching setup can be accused of many things, but playing it safe is certainly not one of them.

Whether it is 7-1 bench splits, or calling a scrum from a free kick in their own 22, they are happy to go for broke and swing for the fences.

You can’t help but feel that their selection for Saturday could be either a stroke of genius to bring through a new generation of players, or could see them bottling the Championship for yet another year.

The Springbok Team to face Australia in Perth on 17 August (caps bracketed):
Jan Hendrik Wessels (1)
Johan Grobelaar (1)
Thomas du Toit (19)
Salmaan Moerat(c) (8)
Ruan Nortje (1)
Marco van Staden (21)
Pieter-Steph du Toit (80)
Elrigh Louw (5)
Morne van den Berg (1)
Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu (5)
Makazole Mapimpi (43)
Lukhanyo Am (36)
Jesse Kriel (72)
Cheslin Kolbe (34)
Aphelele Fassi (5)